Should you be worried about Australian economy??
Things to like -
• The RBA says the economy is expected to grow at a 3% annual rate for 2018 and 2019 and unemployment will ease to 5% and wages and prices will drift higher.
• The jobless rate fell to 5.37 % in July – a 5½-year low.
• In the12 months to January 2018, a record 427,100 jobs were generated over the year, and in June brought 50,900 when 17,000 were tipped
• Job advertisements rose by 1.5% in July to near 7-year highs.
• The proportion of first home buyers in the market hit 6-year highs.
• NAB business conditions index was +15 in June (+5.7 points long-term average).
• Dwelling approvals rose 6.4% in June, the biggest gain in five months.
• National home prices fell by 0.6% in July to stand 1.6% lower on the year.
• The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 0.8% to 118.9 but is still well above the average of 114 since 2014 and average of 113 since 1990.
• The Performance of Construction index rose from 50.6 to 52.0 in July. The index has been above 50 for 18 straight months, indicating expansion in the construction sector.
• Retail trade rose by 0.4% in June, after rising 0.4% in May and rising 0.5% in April. Annual spending growth rose from 2.5% to 2.9%.
• The AiGroup services sector gauge eased 9.4 points to 53.6 in July.
• The trade surplus rose from $725 million in May (previously $827 million) to $1,873 million in June. It was the 11th surplus in 13 months.
• The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) Performance of Manufacturing Index fell from 57.4 points to 52 in July.
• The average credit card balance rose by $56.40 to $3,251.30 in May, up by 4.1% over the year – the strongest annual growth rate in 7½ years.
• In the 12 months to May 2018, the Budget deficit stood at $12.8 billion (less than 0.7% of GDP) up from $12.1 billion in the year to April – the smallest rolling annual deficit for nine years.
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) left its forecast for global economic growth unchanged at 3.9% in 2018 and 2019, above the 40-year average growth rate of 3.5%. If realised, it would be the fastest pace of growth in seven years.
Not to like
• Annual credit growth has slowed to 4.5% – near 4-year lows but the regulators wanted this to slow down house price increases.
• Loans for renovations fell to 17-year lows in trend terms in May.
• Investor loans for property are at 5-year lows but that’s what was wanted by regulators.
• In July, 85,551 new vehicles were sold, down 7.8% over the year but in the 12 months to July, sales totalled 1,187,883 units, up 0.6% on a year ago. The past few years have been record highs.
• The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home price index fell 0.6% in July, to be down 1.6% over the year – the biggest annual fall in six years. But look how small the fall is: at 1.6% showing how huge the boom has been.
Source:
http://www.switzer.com.au/the-experts/peter-switzer-expert/should-you-be-worried-about-the-australian-economy-your-job-your-mortgage-your-future/
• The RBA says the economy is expected to grow at a 3% annual rate for 2018 and 2019 and unemployment will ease to 5% and wages and prices will drift higher.
• The jobless rate fell to 5.37 % in July – a 5½-year low.
• In the12 months to January 2018, a record 427,100 jobs were generated over the year, and in June brought 50,900 when 17,000 were tipped
• Job advertisements rose by 1.5% in July to near 7-year highs.
• The proportion of first home buyers in the market hit 6-year highs.
• NAB business conditions index was +15 in June (+5.7 points long-term average).
• Dwelling approvals rose 6.4% in June, the biggest gain in five months.
• National home prices fell by 0.6% in July to stand 1.6% lower on the year.
• The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 0.8% to 118.9 but is still well above the average of 114 since 2014 and average of 113 since 1990.
• The Performance of Construction index rose from 50.6 to 52.0 in July. The index has been above 50 for 18 straight months, indicating expansion in the construction sector.
• Retail trade rose by 0.4% in June, after rising 0.4% in May and rising 0.5% in April. Annual spending growth rose from 2.5% to 2.9%.
• The AiGroup services sector gauge eased 9.4 points to 53.6 in July.
• The trade surplus rose from $725 million in May (previously $827 million) to $1,873 million in June. It was the 11th surplus in 13 months.
• The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) Performance of Manufacturing Index fell from 57.4 points to 52 in July.
• The average credit card balance rose by $56.40 to $3,251.30 in May, up by 4.1% over the year – the strongest annual growth rate in 7½ years.
• In the 12 months to May 2018, the Budget deficit stood at $12.8 billion (less than 0.7% of GDP) up from $12.1 billion in the year to April – the smallest rolling annual deficit for nine years.
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) left its forecast for global economic growth unchanged at 3.9% in 2018 and 2019, above the 40-year average growth rate of 3.5%. If realised, it would be the fastest pace of growth in seven years.
Not to like
• Annual credit growth has slowed to 4.5% – near 4-year lows but the regulators wanted this to slow down house price increases.
• Loans for renovations fell to 17-year lows in trend terms in May.
• Investor loans for property are at 5-year lows but that’s what was wanted by regulators.
• In July, 85,551 new vehicles were sold, down 7.8% over the year but in the 12 months to July, sales totalled 1,187,883 units, up 0.6% on a year ago. The past few years have been record highs.
• The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home price index fell 0.6% in July, to be down 1.6% over the year – the biggest annual fall in six years. But look how small the fall is: at 1.6% showing how huge the boom has been.
Source:
http://www.switzer.com.au/the-experts/peter-switzer-expert/should-you-be-worried-about-the-australian-economy-your-job-your-mortgage-your-future/
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